IISS Launches North Korea Nuke Study

SINGAPORE - North Korea's third nuclear test will likely be a highly enriched uranium (HEU) bomb, and neither China nor the United States can stop or reverse Pyongyang's nuclear weapons program.

These are the conclusions of a new study by Jonathan Pollack, a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution, at a book launch at the Shangri-La Dialogue on June 3 in Singapore.

"No Exit: North Korea, Nuclear Weapons and International Security" looks at how North Korea has staked its future on the development of nuclear weapons and why the hermit nation will never surrender them.
Organized by the London-based International Institute of Strategic Studies (IISS), the book launch is part of the 10th Asia Security Summit, dubbed The Shangri-La Dialogue, being held June 3-5 in Singapore. The book is part of IISS Adelphi book series that looks at international defense and security issues.
North Korea conducted two underground plutonium bomb tests in 2006 and 2009, and has been developing advanced long-range ballistic missile capabilities that could someday threaten the continental U.S.
Pollack looks at why North Korea disregards United Nations censure and openly circumvents sanctions by selling weapons and technology to other pariah nations to fund its nuclear program.
North Korea is more of a traditional Korean dynasty and not a communist state, Pollack said. The Kim family has successfully ignored efforts by China and the U.S. to influence it to abandon its nuclear program and adopt capitalist reforms. Instead, the Kim family has created an "impregnable fortress" that protects the family dynasty.
With the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991 and China's push towards improved relations with South Korea during the 1980s and 1990s, North Korea became concerned that its traditional protectors would abandon it. The only course of action was to create a mechanism that guaranteed its survivability. Nuclear weapons have clearly served that purpose well, he said.
U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton once referred to North Korea's pursuit of nuclear weapons as a "small child seeking attention." Pollack does not believe this is the correct analogy. "This is a system of old men who have made the pursuit of these capabilities their life time work." He pointed out that North Korea made a conscious decision to begin a nuclear program in the 1970s, as ties between Beijing and Washington began improving.
Despite the fact that North Korea occasionally "drops hints" the nuclear program is a "bargaining chip" that can be exchanged for rice and oil, the reality is that Pyongyang has no intention of surrendering the capability.
The best course of action, Pollack said, is to continue sanctions and other pressure that slows further development, especially efforts by the North to miniaturize a nuclear warhead for fitting on a ballistic missile.

Russia: France, U.K. Could Send Troops Into Libya

MOSCOW - Russia's top diplomat warned June 4 that the NATO operation in Libya was "sliding towards" a land campaign, a prospect he said Moscow viewed as "deplorable," the RIA Novosti news agency reported.
"We know that France and Britain intend to use military helicopters. We have given our view of NATO's actions," Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said, quoted by the RIA Novosti news agency.

"We consider that what is going on is either consciously or unconsciously sliding towards a land operation. That would be very deplorable," he added.
"We think our Western partners understand that the events in Libya are taking an undesirable turn, but the decisions that have been taken are continuing by momentum," Lavrov told journalists in Odessa, according to the news agency.
Lavrov's comments came after NATO acknowledged June 4 that it had deployed British and French attack helicopters against Moammar Gadhafi's forces for the first time.
Russian President Dmitry Mevedev's special representative on Africa said earlier June 4 that he would travel late June 6 to Libya to try to mediate the conflict, the Interfax news agency reported.
Mikhail Margelov said he plans to visit the rebel stronghold of Benghazi "to meet leaders of Libya's National Transitional Council," according to the Interfax report.
Russia abstained from the U.N. Security Council resolution on Libya and has called for a negotiated solution to the conflict, which has cost thousands of lives since it erupted in mid-February.

Top Al-Qaida Militant Killed in Pakistan: Officials

ISLAMABAD - A U.S. drone strike likely killed Pakistan's Al-Qaida commander Ilyas Kashmiri, in what would deal a major blow to the terror network a month after Osama bin Laden's death, officials said June 4.
The 47-year-old Kashmiri is one of the most feared operational commanders of the network that bin Laden founded and has been blamed for a string of high-profile attacks on western targets, as well as in India and Pakistan.
He has a maximum U.S. bounty of $5 million on his head, and Pakistani officials said he was the target of a U.S. drone strike in South Waziristan on the Afghan border on June 3, in which nine members of his banned group died.
His killing would likely be seen as a huge achievement in the United States after U.S. Navy SEALs killed bin Laden in Pakistan, itself feted as the greatest psychological victory over al-Qaida since the Sept. 11, 2001, terrorist attacks.
A senior Pakistani security official said there were "strong indications" that Kashmiri had been killed, but that it was impossible to provide 100 percent confirmation so soon after the attack without access to the bodies.
The corpses were burnt beyond recognition and swiftly buried. Militants also barred access to the site of the attack in Ghwakhwa in South Waziristan, a militant stronghold despite a sweeping Pakistani offensive in 2009.
"There are strong indications that he has been killed in the strike, but we cannot confirm it and we are still trying to confirm it," the senior Pakistani official said on condition of anonymity.
Pakistani officials said Kashmiri had been in the area for several days and that all those killed were from his Harakat-ul-Jihad al-Islam (HuJI) group.
Senior security officials explained that confirmation would be difficult unless Kashmiri's family or his group officially announced his death.
"According to our reports, he was present here in this area. We have information that he has been killed but no one has seen his dead body," local administration official Naimat Ullah told AFP.
Another security official said two close associates who usually travel with Kashmiri, Amir Hamza and Mohammad Usman, were killed.
Kashmiri is understood to have been in the area to discuss strategy should the Pakistani military launch an offensive in North Waziristan, as has been predicted as part of the fallout surrounding bin Laden's killing.
Anti-terrorism experts have long described Kashmiri as one of al-Qaida's main operational commanders. He reportedly escaped a U.S. drone strike in North Waziristan in late 2009.
He has been blamed for multiple attacks in Pakistan, including the two most humiliating assaults on the military - a May 22 siege on a naval air base in Karachi and in October 2009 on the national army headquarters in Rawalpindi.
Counterterrorism officials believe he was the main coordinator of a terror plot targeting Britain, France, Germany and the United States, which was apparently in the early stages when detected by intelligence agencies in 2010.
Kashmiri's family in the village of Thathi in Bhimber district, more than nine hours' drive from Muzaffarabad, the capital of Pakistani-administered Kashmir, said June 4 they had not been in contact with him for six years.
"We came to know through TV. We don't know whether he is dead or alive," his elder brother Mohammad Asghar said by telephone.
A spokesman for Pakistan's umbrella Taliban faction said Kashmiri was "alive and safe," and had not been present at the time of the strike.
In January 2010, a U.S. federal grand jury indicted him for terrorism-related offences in connection with a plot to attack Danish newspaper Jyllands-Posten following uproar over blasphemous cartoons.
Listed on U.S. and U.N. terror blacklists, Kashmiri was born in 1964 in Azad, Kashmir. He is about 6 feet tall and weighs about 200 pounds.
He has black hair and been seen with a thick beard dyed white, black, or red at various times.
He has lost sight in one eye, and often wears aviator-style sunglasses. He is missing an index finger, according to the U.S. State Department.
The June 3 drone attack was the ninth reported in Pakistan's border area with Afghanistan, branded by Washington the global headquarters of al-Qaida, since U.S. commandos killed bin Laden in the garrison city of Abbottabad on May 2.
The raid sent shockwaves through Pakistan's seemingly powerful security establishment, with its intelligence services widely accused of incompetence or complicity over the presence of bin Laden close to a military academy.